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Abstract The metabolic activity of soil microbiomes plays a central role in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Given the changing climate, it is important to understand how the metabolism of natural communities responds to environmental change. However, the ecological, spatial, and chemical complexity of soils makes understanding the mechanisms governing the response of these communities to perturbations challenging. Here, we overcome this complexity by using dynamic measurements of metabolism in microcosms and modeling to reveal regimes where a few key mechanisms govern the response of soils to environmental change. We sample soils along a natural pH gradient, construct >1500 microcosms to perturb the pH, and quantify the dynamics of respiratory nitrate utilization, a key process in the nitrogen cycle. Despite the complexity of the soil microbiome, a minimal mathematical model with two variables, the quantity of active biomass in the community and the availability of a growth-limiting nutrient, quantifies observed nitrate utilization dynamics across soils and pH perturbations. Across environmental perturbations, changes in these two variables give rise to three functional regimes each with qualitatively distinct dynamics of nitrate utilization over time: a regime where acidic perturbations induce cell death that limits metabolic activity, a nutrientlimiting regime where nitrate uptake is performed by dominant taxa that utilize nutrients released from the soil matrix, and a resurgent growth regime in basic conditions, where excess nutrients enable growth of initially rare taxa. The underlying mechanism of each regime is predicted by our interpretable model and tested via amendment experiments, nutrient measurements, and sequencing. Further, our data suggest that the long-term history of environmental variation in the wild influences the transitions between functional regimes. Therefore, quantitative measurements and a mathematical model reveal the existence of qualitative regimes that capture the mechanisms and dynamics of a community responding to environmental change. 

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G_CC) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G_CCand GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G_CCacross. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G_CC∼ GPP and ET relationships (R² = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G_CCis a better predictor of GPP than ET (R² = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R² = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G_CCfor GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G_CCcould provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.